RSP Boiler Room No.82: RB Alvin Kamara, Fine Points of Decision-Making


kamara

I admire the construction of the Kamara Train, but until he learns to build a smarter railway, I’m content with getting my ticket at a later date. 

There’s a lot of love for Alvin Kamara among the draftnik community. Don’t include me.

I like Kamara. He’s a dynamic space player who can do some good work between the tackles. But in a rich class of runners, you won’t see him in my top 5 list of backs.

It’s unlikely he’ll be in my top 10. And unless I see overwhelming evidence of better ball security and decision-making—which is doubtful—he won’t be in my top 15-20.

It doesn’t make Kamara a bad player. I have a process that differs from the NFL’s system of round grades. While I’m critical of that system for compelling reasons as a former operations guy,  there is validity to giving more weight to a player’s projected improvement than his current portfolio of work.

I project player development within my process, but there are limits to how much weight I’m willing to give. If Kamara improves his ball security, I would easily place him inside my top 15-20 and (if) when he matures as a decision-maker,  he could score within my top 8-12 backs.

This week’s Boiler Room examines three plays where his choices hurt his team and will continue to hurt them until he matures.

For analysis of skill players in the 2017 draft class, pre-order a login for the 2017 Rookie Scouting Portfolio – for April 1 download  Better yet, if you’re a fantasy owner the Post-Draft Add-on comes with the 2012 – 2017 RSPs at no additional charge. Best, yet, 10 percent of every sale is donated to Darkness to Light to combat sexual abuse. You can purchase past editions of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio for just $9.95 apiece.

Categories: 2017 NFL Draft, Matt Waldman, Players, Running Back, The Boiler RoomTags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2 comments

  1. I never heard of Matt Waldman, compared to other known draft analysts. Who are the 15 running backs that he would rank ahead of Kamara?

    • I’m the same guy who thought LeVeon Bell’s quickness would translate to the NFL, who thought Bishop Sankey and Knile Davis were not NFL-caliber starters, and at the same time, raved about Spencer Ware’s ability to become a valuable contributor in the NFL as a running back while at LSU. I have my share of misses like everyone, but that’s a little bit about my work that you’ll find around here if you care to take a look around. Enjoy.

      Matt

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