The Gut Check No.363: Over-Under, WR ADPs


Waldman’s first pass at the 2016 wide receivers through the lens of average draft position.

Precision is overrated in May. The archery, surgical lasers, and nanotechnology will have its time in July. This spring, it’s all about horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear weapons at the office of the Gut Check.

We all have to start somewhere. As I create my first set of fantasy rankings, I’m beginning with the broad strokes. Today’s Gut Check profiles receivers that I like significantly more or less than the current ADP in PPR leagues.


My values versus existing ADP will change. How much, I have no idea. This article is that starting point. The purpose of this exercise is to note which receivers merit closer examination when creating your draft plans.



Ageism in Full Effect

Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 64, The Gut Check 14): The No.7 PPR fantasy receiver in 2015, the collective conscious of fantasy football has sounded the alarm about his age. Despite earning 109 receptions, 1215 yards, and 9 touchdowns behind an improved offensive line and a good running game, Fitzgerald’s fantasy price hovers around the sixth round. Excluding quarterbacks, Fitzgerald was the No.8 fantasy player last year.

There is no logical reason for him to fall 50 spots. John Brown and Michael Floyd gave the Cardinals the No.25 and No.38 fantasy receivers last year and they each played 15 games. The Cardinals don’t have a tight end capable of captivatingCarson Palmer‘s attention at the expense of its three wide receivers.

Last I heard, Bruce Arians and his staff remain intact. The offense will remain balanced while leaning heavily on its veteran quarterback. But fantasy owners regard Fitzgerald’s production as a fluke rather than the product of an exceptional player.

Read the rest at Footballguys

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