Sunday Fantasy Mailbag 10/21/2012

Would you trade C.J. Spiller for Julio Jones and the Law Firm? I wouldn’t, see why in this week’s mail bag. Photo by Matt Britt

The weekend mailbag is back! I’m also going to field Twitter questions. I think “new” technology like Twitter is fantastic and fantastically comical because as people we’re always behind the curve with how to use new tools. So I’m probably going to make fun of the questions I get on Twitter. If I rag on you or your question, I will provide a serious answer.

Yes, I still am a Randall Cobb fan (so is Aaron Rodgers if you read his interview this week in ESPN Milwaukee), but I’d consider trading him for Luck if I need a second piece to a QB committee for the stretch run. Photo by Elvis Kennedy

(Anthony T.): Do I trade Cobb for Luck? I’m deep at Wr and only have Vick as my qb. Ppr. Thnx. 

It depends on your league type. Since my mind-reading talents are temporarily unplugged I have no idea whether you’re the 301st guy that routinely asks me questions about dynasty leagues or the 504th guy that hits me up for re-draft. Let’s assume redraft and if that’s the case, it’s a more difficult question.  Luck is a borderline QB1 in many leagues, capable of good QB1 production with a strong schedule ahead that includes a mid-November to early-December schedule of the Patriots, Bills, Lions, and Titans. If Cobb is truly a luxury depth player and never sees your starting lineup even on a bye-week, then the decision is easy. If he’s a some-time WR3 or flex-play, you have to consider the schedule of your current QB2 if you lack that much confidence in Vick. Personally, I think Vick-Luck present a strong playoff-committee combo because in the final two weeks of the fantasy playoffs, Vick faces the Bengals and Redskins. Luck could help you get to the big game and Vick could help you win it.

RRochetti:  Phillip Tanner or Joique Bell as a PPR flex? Tanner has better matchup, Bell has more clear role.

Tanner does have the better matchup with the Panthers on the docket, but are you certain that Tanner is going to see enough carries? I’ll echo your sentiments and say that you have the right to worry about it. Bell will see his share of looks and I believe it will happen just because the Bears have a good chance to pull ahead of the Lions early. 

If you’re seeking upside, I think Tanner is the player to add because he’s a breakaway threat. If you’re seeking the solace of a guaranteed 5-10 points, I think Bell is a better match. Funny enough I think these two backs would be a cost-effective committee backfield for an NFL team. 

WhiteSoxFan1979:  would u risk starting Aaron Hernandez tomorrow?

I have to ask WSF79, is your Twitter handle a reference to Disco Demolition Night? It would be an awesome story to tell people: “Yeah, my parents conceived me on July 12, 1979 after taking in a game at Comiskey Park.”

Anyhow, yes I’d take the risk. I know that Antonio Cromartie might see a significant amount of snaps on Hernandez, but unless you give me an either/or option to Hernandez, all I can do is tell you to start the Pats’ tight end. I can tell you that Hernandez is still probably good for 6-8 points of production in PPR leagues as a worst case scenario. He should also be a week better on that ankle, which means a little mobility. He’ll might even be able to do the Hustle.

Stafford or Eli Manning? Gotta go against the Bulldog in this case unless you get something else worthwhile in return. Photo by Marianne O’Leary.

Althepostman Would I be crazy to trade Eli for Stafford?

Crazy? Dare I say “postal?” As someone who worked with the post office and managed a bulk mailing operation for a year, I feel I can say that without getting you too riled. I don’t think it’s a nutty idea if you’re going to get something back like a solid starter as a flex as  part of what you get in return for giving up Manning. You also better have a strong QB2 that you can use in committee with Stafford down the stretch, because Manning has the better schedule. Personally, I’d keep Manning. 

Bengals RB Cedric Peerman needs to channel about 45 percent of his inner Odell Thurman tonight. However, he needs to be careful not to reach 46 percent or he might find a cell block waiting for him.

YallGottoChill  I read your RSP on Ced Peerman. Best opportunity he’ll ever get in Cincy is right now. Stash him before tomorrow’s game??

I agree, and I’ve set out the rosary beads, saint charms, voodoo candles, and my lucky Odell Thurman jersey to help Peerman make the most of his chance since Marvin Lewis threw him into the special teams basement and padlocked the trap door. If Peerman is going to have any shot at a career as a running back in Cincinnati, he’ll need to make it clear this week or next that he’s far more than a special teams ace and good guy off the field. Unfortunately, he’ll need more assistance from BenJarvus Green-Ellis and that means the Law Firm doing some pro bono work on behalf of a colleague.

Since its against my ethics to make a Green-Ellis voodoo doll, all you can do is stash Peerman and hope he does more than garner 3-4 catches and 3-4 carries. I would only stash Peerman in dynasty leagues that have taxi squads and at least 20-25 roster spots. You can’t put the veteran on your taxi squad, but you might be able to move around some personnel to add him. 

Denarius Moore, David Wilson, or Steve Johnson? I think you go SEC over ACC this week. See below. Photo by Wade Rackley.

Tierneyp  #flexppr if Bradshaw is out, start David Wilson over Denarius Moore or Steve Johnson?

If Bradshaw is out, Wilson is still in the same role he was while Andre Brown was out with a concussion. Expect Brown to be the main back. I’d opt for Moore or Johnson. The Raiders receiver has the most upside, but Johnson’s best shot at decent production might be against the Titans. Still, the Titans played better last week and I’d be more inclined to go with Moore. Wilson could trump the receivers with just one carry, but do you really want to play the lottery when you have two solid investments in your bank?

Nick Whalen: If Marqise Lee were draft eligible this season(pretend for a minute), is he the first WR selected?

I don’t think so, but it’s not out of the question. It would depend how confident scouts and management would feel about his skills on intermediate and deep routes. If Robert Meachem and Craig Davis can be  first-round picks and I think Lee is a much better prospect than either, then I believe it’s possible and preferable to guys of that caliber. 

Yellowban: Can Luck emerge to a top 3 fantasy qb by next season ?

I don’t think so. As much as I like Luck, I think expecting him to become an elite fantasy producer is a bad idea. Smart, mobile, and efficient, Luck needs 2-3 of the young receivers complementing Reggie Wayne to make dramatic improvements in Year Two to expect that kind of productivity. I think Luck has more of a Matt Ryan type of trajectory in his future, which means expect elite production only if the Colts draft picks from this year and future years pay in spades in the next 2-3 years. I’d consider him a top-10 quarterback with upside for the 5-7 range of the rankings board.

GMART107 was just offered Spiller for Julio and BJGE in a keeper league. Thoughts?

Spiller is a top-five back right now and looks healthier than Fred Jackson. Jones is the No.16 receiver whose hype, in my opinion, outweighs his consistent production. I like Jones, but everyone thinks I don’t because they mistake my criticism of the minor deficiencies of his game that hold him back from primary WR1 status and their idealized view of him as hating him.

Jones is a fantastic talent, but he’s seeing bracket coverage due to that athleticism and not because he’s the better receiver in comparison to Roddy White. Defenses just prefer to put the lid on Jones’ big-play ability and force longer drives that could break down. This makes White the much more consistent option. Even his bad weeks are better than Jones’ thus far. Keep Spiller unless he’s oddly your RB4 and you’d never use him, which I bet is not the case. 

2 responses to “Sunday Fantasy Mailbag 10/21/2012”

  1. Although I’m not watching the Indy – Cleveland game, but the text play-by-play seems to indicate Vick Ballard is taking too many trips to the corner store. If you get a chance, can you please let us know what you think? Thanks.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.