Matt Waldman shares his pre-NFL Draft scouting report of Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix. 

For more RSP scouting reports – past and present – you can purchase the draft guides here. 

RSP Ranking: QB3

Jersey: No.10

Height/Weight: 6-2/214   School: Oregon/Auburn

Comparison Spectrum:  Matt Ryan – X – Davis Mills – Mitchell Trubisky

Depth of Talent Score: 79 = Contributor:  Starter execution in a limited role; diminishing returns beyond that scope. Nix is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role where they play to their strengths.

RSP Accuracy Charting:

Games Tracked (Opponent/Date/Link):

• Georgia ‘22
• UCLA ‘22
• Cal ‘22
• Colorado ‘23
• Utah ’23
• USC ‘23
• Oregon State ’23
• Washington II ‘23

 

Elevator Pitch: If Nix had a better arm, he might be the clear-cut No.2 quarterback on the board. That’s the margin between him and Micheal Penix, Jr. Nix has enough arm to start in many NFL systems, but it’s more in the realm of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan—good enough, but not going to power through iffy or late decisions. Even if it improves, expect only a moderate difference that won’t elevate his arm talent to the elite tier.

That shouldn’t deter the right team from considering him as a future starter. This will surprise many who consider Nix a college system quarterback who found new life in Oregon’s offense after struggling at Auburn.

While both systems threw their share of bubble screens and RPOs, a process-oriented evaluation of Nix’s game at both teams reveals that Nix is more than a product of scheme. Despite lacking a cannon, Nix possesses the accuracy, technical prowess, manipulation skills, pocket management, decision-making, and athletic ability to develop into an NFL starter.

Nix reads the field much better than credited accounting for the leverage of defenders with target decisions and his placement. He’s a willing tight-window thrower who knows how to protect his receivers. Nix made decisions and delivered targets with these skills at both schools, but Auburn’s receivers often did him fewer favors with their execution.

Nix also possesses the small manipulative touches. This includes the positioning of his frame after drops as well as play fakes and pump fakes to punctuate his ability to hold defenders with his eyes.

Because he lacks top-notch arm strength, Nix relies on anticipation to win downfield. When he’s reading accurately, he possesses excellent anticipation to deliver vertical shots. If he’s late, receivers on boundary routes can find themselves waiting 1-2 beats for the ball and NFL defenders will make Nix pay for these lapses.

Although he leans a little too hard on the spin and roll as a maneuver of retreat from the pocket, Nix will make efficient climbs of the pocket as well as sidestep defenders in tight spaces. Nix isn’t a dynamic mover like Caleb Williams, but he’s quick enough to maneuver from pressure in and outside the pocket and make accurate throws to move the chains and lead receivers into open spaces for bigger plays.

Once he breaks the pocket, he’s athletic enough to move the chains and earn a little more. He’s not as underrated of a run as Mitchell Trubisky at the beginning of Trubisky’s career, but his mobility is enough to stretch the field horizontally with designed movement.

Unlike many college quarterbacks who attempt throws that their arm can’t deliver, Nix already possesses a good feel for situations where he can make off-platform or cross-body throws. He also doesn’t get too invested in plays, getting rid of the ball fast when he breaks the pocket. He also throws the ball away on schemed plays rather than trying to force them into the receiver, which is something a lot of young quarterbacks do too often.

If Nix can maintain this maturity as he’s acclimating to the NFL, it will go a long way toward mistake-free football early in his career. Don’t count on it if he must start as a rookie for a rebuilding team but with a strong infrastructure around him, Nix could deliver moderate production while limiting fatal mistakes that could take his team out of the game.

Where has the player improved? Nix has improved his pitch fakes that were a big part of the Oregon play-action game.

Where is the player inconsistent? Nix has moments where he doesn’t see defenders near the receiver but not primarily responsible for coverage.

What is the best scheme fit? Nix has the versatility to run a spread offense as well as work from center in an offense with more traditional West Coast influences. If either offense is geared toward quick passing, Nix would be a capable fit. Nix and Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota could be a good pairing.

Sean Payton’s offense doesn’t require an elite arm talent. Nix could thrive in Denver with the play-action game and his ability to work the middle of the field.

What is his ceiling scenario? If Nix can maximize his decision-making potential and land with a receivers who excel at timing routes, Nix could become a productive starter with top-15 production potential at his position. He’ll need a stacked offense and top-notch offensive coach to deliver top-five production.

What is his floor scenario? Nix experiences difficulty reading the field as he’s acclimating to the NFL game, takes a lot of punishment, and his game deteriorates to the point that he loses confidence and too many throws are late and questionable decisions.

Physical: Nix’s arm is good enough for a starter, but not flashy enough to appeal to most NFL owners obsessed with what big media says.

Technical: Nix has capable drops, releases, and play-action skills.

Conceptual: Nix’s placement to protect receivers in the middle of the field stands out.

Intuitive: Nix has shown at Oregon that he knows his limitations as a thrower and doesn’t put his team in danger.

Build: Big enough to start in the league but not a 230-plus-pound tank with a cannon.

Drops: Nix has effective one-step and two-step drops from gun or pistol into a balanced release stance. The movements are precise and efficient. The same is true of his three-step drop and five-step drop. He can perform three-, five, and seven-step drops from center and as part of the play-action game. He also has a seven-step designed roll from center, releasing the ball after the seventh step. He can throw off his back foot.

Ball Security: Nix tucks the ball under his boundary-side arm on designed runs to the sideline. When flushing from pressure, Nix is prone to running with the ball in his throwing arm, even after he breaks the pocket and commits as a runner to the opposite boundary.

The ball swings in his arm and is loose enough from the chest and side for pursuit to earn access to the ball when Nix is running at full speed. When he tucks the ball and knows contact is imminent, Nix can take contact to his ball-carrying arm and maintain possession.

Play Fakes: Nix has full extension with play-action execution on quick drops. He sells the extension all the way through the exchange with the extension and movement of his arms, but he can sell the upper body with some bend.

Nix also delivers the I-formation play-fake with his back turned to the runner. He delivers with good timing and extension as part of a five-step drop.

Pitch fakes are a part of the Oregon offense to set up designed QB runs. Last year, his pitch fake could have more exaggeration with the movement of his arms further away from his frame. This year, it improved.

Nix’s pitch fake has more violence and believability with the arm movement when it’s a part of a drop back.

Pump Fakes: When Nix opens to one side of the field to manipulate the defense, he often punctuates the move with a shoulder fake. He has a small and a full-motion pump fake with minimal violence, waving the ball at pressure as he flushes away from it.

He’ll also use a full-motion pump fake with moderate violence in the open field. He can fake out a flat defender with it and sidestep the opponent after freezing the defender with the move.

Release: Nix has an over-the-shoulder release motion. He brings the ball behind his shoulder but the motion from chest to behind the shoulder doesn’t have a deep dip with the ball. The ball comes out over his shoulder with a nice snap.

Nix’s lower body release movement includes good alignment of the midline of the back foot and the big toe of the front foot with the target. There is weight transfer from the back leg to the front leg.

Nix has good control of his feet and hips on quick screens to snap his turn from center to the boundary and delivers an accurate ball after.

When pressured, Nix can alter his release to work over or around a defender into his body and deliver the ball with touch and accuracy. He can also abbreviate his motion with a flick of the wrist for short-range targets or deliver three-quarter around coverage penetrating the flat. His three-quarter and sidearm delivery in the shallow ranges are accurate.

Accuracy (No Pressure)

On-Platform Accuracy: Nix displays good placement against coverage playing over the top of a short route breaking back to the quarterback, delivering the ball where the receiver can get his back between himself and the coverage. Nix has a range of 56 yards up the seam with pinpoint accuracy. He can deliver the back shoulder against tight coverage close to the same side boundary at 32 yards from the pitch.

He must get more air under his go routes or fades thrown against a high–low zone coverage. The low defender has the opportunity to cut off these targets from 5-7 yards away.

He’s accurate in tight windows in between zone defenders in the middle of the field in the shallow range, placing the ball so he doesn’t lead the receiver into the oncoming defender. The same is true with fitting the ball between the official and the safety or linebacker over the middle in the intermediate range.

Nix can be late with intermediate boundary routes—even to the same side of the field.

Opposite-Hash Accuracy: His opposite sideline back-shoulder fades in the vertical range of the field (28-42 yards) can be slow to reach the target. If the route is run well, it doesn’t matter, but the receiver can find himself waiting 1-2 beats at a standstill after his turn.

Mobile Accuracy: He has pinpoint accuracy moving to his left and throwing the out or comeback at 18-20 yards.

Decision-Making: When working a mirrored concept (same route pairs for receivers on each side of the formation), Nix identifies the most favorable coverage as the basis for his first read.

Nix can underestimate the leverage advantage of a safety on intermediate and vertical routes with vertical breaks or slanted breaks and target a receiver who is well covered and remains well covered based on that position. The physical throw might have accuracy, but only if the coverage didn’t have the position it did throughout the route.

When Nix estimates the safety in this position on these accurately, he displays excellent anticipation with his vertical shots.

Nix reads leverage well in the short game, noting the position of a flat defender at the top of his drop and delivering with anticipation. He’ll also throw the receiver open or away from the defender in the path of the break so the receiver has room to protect himself and/or transition away from the defender as a runner.

Nix can open to one side to manipulate the defender and set up a screen, throwback, or check-down to the opposite side. He’ll also open to the deeper range of the field before turning back to deliver the ball on a designed play like a screen.

Nix spots early opportunities to deliver to an open receiver when there appears to be confusion between two cover defenders that leaves an open space for a quick hot read or adjustment between Nix and his receiver.

He’ll throw the ball away when a schemed play is covered well enough that fitting the ball into a tight space is prohibitive.

Nix can layer the ball behind intermediate or shallow coverage when on the move and knows trying to fit the ball over the defender in the passing lane isn’t worthwhile. He can also layer it above a shallow defender up the seam.

Nix displays anticipation with the intermediate out from the opposite hash getting the ball out as the receiver is at the top of his stem.

Sense Pressure: Nix will take a hit from interior pressure to complete a wide-open pass in the middle of the field against zone coverage. He identifies edge pressure early enough to know when to make a two-step climb. He’ll also identify potential interior pressure pre-snap and send a player in motion to determine if there’s going to be pressure from that defender or the has a coverage assignment.

Nix will execute a spin and roll from edge pressure, but he’s prone to beginning it way too early and doesn’t generate the separation the move is supposed to provide.

He can wait until interior pressure is two steps away from him before rolling to the backside flat.

Maneuvering From Pressure: Nix is accurate in the shallow middle of the field against man-to-man and/or with a safety over the top when forced to climb from edge pressure and deliver with interior pressure closing on him. He will sidestep defenders and reduce the shoulder from opponent’s reaching for his frame or the ball. He can flush the pocket, roll to his left, and bring the flat defender to him and dump it to the check-down with general accuracy.

Nix can sidestep and climb to avoid two points of pressure in the pocket and find the check-down on the move. He can also roll way from edge pressure and then sidestep pressure from the flat defender while setting up to deliver the ball.

He’ll embed a sidestep into his process after the final step of his drop so he can drop, sidestep, plant, and throw against an unblocked edge defender and deliver an accurate intermediate target in the middle of the field.

Accuracy (Pressure)

On-Platform Accuracy: Nix can deliver the ball pinpoint to the flat 45 yards downfield on and deep over with a defender bearing down on Nix’s chest as he finishes the release. He knows when he’ll be dealing with an unblocked defender and he times his targets to get the ball out accurately just before he’s hit.

Off-Platform Accuracy: He can deliver opposite hash and off-platform under pressure to the boundary at 35 yards. Anything more has diminishing returns.

Opposite-Hash Accuracy: Nix can throw the ball 58 yards from the hash to the far numbers.

Mobile Accuracy: Nix can deliver the back-shoulder throw on the move to his right with pinpoint accuracy at 25 yards. He can deliver on the move to his right or climbing into pressure and take a hit and complete at 28 yards with general accuracy.

Decision-Making: He’s patient with shallow zone windows in a compressed pocket and knows how to make an efficient move in the pocket to buy time and space but not work into pressure so he can deliver an accurate ball.  He doesn’t get baited by linebackers sugaring the A-gaps pre-snap. He’s patient enough to spot where they drop and whom to target underneath those drops.

Nix will throw the ball away on designed sprints when pressure forces him tight to the boundary and no receiver comes open.

He can cycle through 1-2 reads and find the open man with pressure bearing down late in the play. Nix will target receivers with cross-field throws against his frame while on the move against pressure, but does it when receivers are not more than within 10 yards of a defender. This is a good decision and can yield chunk plays.

For instance, when the coverage and spacing of routes is sparse enough to do so, Nix will throw across his body on the move 35 yards and give his vertical receiver an opportunity to come back to the ball without danger of another defender cutting off the target.

He can throw into the cornerback blitz but he needs his receivers to be on the same page and make the adjustment, including execution of flatter breaks.

He has lapses on the move under pressure where he doesn’t see a defender on a receiver not far from the intended target and that defender peels off his coverage to cut off the QB’s throwing lane. He must anticipate this peripheral defender’s location better.

He works off-script with maturity, often finding open receivers on the same side or opposite side of the field. He buys time, but tends to get rid of the ball quickly. He will check down when his deeper options aren’t available.

Scrambling: Nix is strong enough to pull through reaches to his frame. He’s quick enough to avoid 2-3 defenders and multiple points of pressure when he can climb and/or weave around pressure in the pocket.

Running: Nix has enough speed to reach the short-side boundary against a defensive lineman and outside linebacker on a designed run to the edge. He won’t turn the corner, but he can reach the boundary for a short gain.

If he gets great blocking and the defense is not at the boundary, Nix can flip the field behind his blockers.

Nix will slide to end runs and avoid hits. He has good timing to dive under and between defenders to finish designed runs.

I don’t know if he’s in Mitchell Trubisky’s tier as a runner, but he’s closer to it than he is far away. He can earn 10-20 yards when breaking the pocket in the middle of the field and weaving around pursuit.

He runs between the tackles with good body lean and can pull through reaches to his waist due to his lean and pad level.

Durability: Broken ankle in mid-November of 2021 and had surgery.

Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: Whether it’s mobility, size, and/or arm talent, NFL teams prefer their early-round prospects to possess elite physical attributes. Nix can ride the NFL ride as a starting quarterback, but it’s more likely he falls out of the first round.

Nix will offer potential value if available outside the first 12-15 picks in Super-Flex formats and the first 18-24 picks in single-quarterback leagues. Lower him by at least 7-10 picks in each format if taken after the second round in the NFL Draft.

Boiler/Film Room Material (Links to plays):

• A moment of over-aggression in the vertical game
• Patience, urgency, and efficiency from a compressed pocket
• Back-shoulder accuracy on the move
• Placement over the middle
• Tight window over the middle
• Trust Throw
• Timing and placement on dig
• Placement
• Red zone vs pressure
• Pre-snap adjustment
• Pre-snap read, manipulation, and layered throw for TD
• Patience vs zone and placement
• Against the grain on the move for TD
• Issues with judgement or timing on perimeter targets
• Dealing with unblocked defender
• First down gain based on knowledge of coverage behind the blitz