Matt Waldman shares his pre-draft scouting report of Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, an evaluation that requires the reader to be open to more nuance and context than they are used to.
This report is a sample from the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, the most comprehensive evaluations of skill position prospects available. Entering its 20th season, you can learn more about and purchase the RSP here.
WR Keon Coleman RSP Scouting Profile
RSP Ranking: WR6
Jersey: No. 4 FSU/0 MSU
Height/Weight: 6’3”/213 School: FSU/Michigan State
Player Comparison Spectrum: Anquan Boldin/Mike Williams – X – Tee Higgins
Depth of Talent Score: 89.5 = Starter: Starting immediately with a large role and learning on the go. Coleman is on the cusp of the Franchise Tier: Immediate production and leadership anchor.
Games Tracked:
The Elevator Pitch: Coleman’s evaluation requires the reader to be open to more nuance and context than most of the top options on the board. It’s not about whether Coleman is good or not, but how good he can be based on his role and his surrounding talent in the passing game.
If the design of the RSP’s evaluations were to determine how likely a player would earn his best-case team fit, Coleman would have a lower grade because to unlock his complete game, he’ll need a quarterback with excellent anticipation and confidence throwing into tight windows.
Coleman’s contested-catch ability—arguably the best in this class—is only part of the reason why. Coleman is an effective route runner who has an effective press-release package, smart stem work, and sharp breaks. He earns separation on underneath routes when projecting to the standard of the pro game. However, this standard also includes anticipatory passers with pinpoint placement and there are teams that don’t have a starting quarterback with these qualities.
Despite his lackluster 40-time at the NFL Combine, he had one of the fastest M.P.H. marks in the gauntlet drill among receivers. This is a better approximation of the play speed seen on tape. Coleman often earns 1-2 steps on cornerbacks within the first 12-15 yards of a route and he routinely stacks them to cut off their position for the remainder of the route.
Because his breaks are sharp and flat, Coleman earns enough separation to develop into a high-volume intermediate target in the short and intermediate passing game if the quarterback is looking for him as the first option. If Coleman is consistently the second or third option on routes where quarterbacks can be 1-2 beats late to throw the ball and Coleman’s coverage is tight man-to-man, those windows of opportunity will not be as good.
Coleman’s contest-catch ability and physicality will compensate somewhat in this scenario but only if the quarterback possesses the confidence and accuracy to fit it to Coleman. Most don’t and this is why Coleman’s ranking has a boom-bust quality when it comes to him achieving his NFL ceiling.
Still, it’s an excellent ceiling. Coleman has a terrific catch radius and stone-cold confidence about winning the ball between defenders, regardless of how many there are, how big they are, and where they are relative to him and the ball.
Coleman also runs well after the catch. Many NFL fans who don’t watch football won’t know that Coleman returned 25 punts for 300 yards at FSU for a respectable 12 yards per return and a long gain of 72 yards. What stands out the most about Coleman in this role is how efficiently he changes direction. He flips his hips like a veteran running back and can point the toe to open his hips in tight traffic, which helps him hug blocks, set up opponents into the block, and then bounce outside.
He’s far more agile, technically sound, and versatile than he’s characterized, which is why I have been recently calling Coleman the LeGarrette Blount of this wide receiver class. Yes, newbies, Blount was a running back—I interviewed him at the Senior Bowl—but he was also considered a plodding athlete among those who possessed a less nuanced understanding of the different forms of speed. Blount was also a fine kick return specialist in New England in addition to his work as a lead runner.
I would love to see Coleman as a Steeler. He’s a high-effort player with skill as a blocker and would match well with Russell Wilson, whose 2023 season in Denver might have gone significantly better if Tim Patrick were healthy. Coleman is a plus-plus iteration of Patrick.
Where has the player improved? In 2022, Coleman would leave his feet for targets thrown behind him on slants where he could have extended with over hand position and kept his feet on the ground. Coleman displayed signs of improvement during the first game of 2023, keeping his feet on the ground with similar targets.
Where is the player inconsistent? His strike technique as a blocker is an uppercut but he can develop greater force if he learns to roll through his hips.
What is the best scheme fit? A flanker or big slot or free access split end. Because he earns a quick 1-2 steps back to the quarterback on timing routes, he would excel with a quarterback who delivers with anticipation. If he doesn’t get paired with a quarterback who has strong anticipation, he may never reach his optimal production potential in the NFL.
What is his ceiling scenario? Coleman could have a career similar to Anquan Boldin, Mike Williams, or maybe Brandon Marshall if his route skills carry over and find the right fit with a good quarterback.
What is his floor scenario? Coleman becomes a third option in an offense or an off-the-bench option that is only used situationally because a GM drafted Coleman into an offensive system with a coach who doesn’t see a fit and tries to make Coleman be something he isn’t.
Physical: Coleman dictates physicality from the release through the catch point.
Technical: Coleman’s sharp and flat breaks are a key part of his route running and it’s what gives him a fighting chance to attain his ceiling of potential.
Conceptual: Coleman will point out the potential DB blitz from his side of the alignment pre-snap.
Intuitive: Coleman has a good feel for pacing in his routes and this helps him tell efficient stories without a lot of wasted movement.
Build: Tall and above-average weight. He might be capable of adding another 10 pounds of muscle.
Releases: Coleman has a staggered stance with his hands hanging at either side of his front leg. The stance has 80/20 weight distribution toward the front foot. He comes off the ball with his shoulders over his feet, and his head and eyes are facing downhill.
His stance is a little wide and it forces Coleman to bring this front foot back before he rolls off it. It also forces a slight rocking motion with the back foot. He attacks downhill with his arms pumping wide of his frame and pads over the knees. As the season progressed, there were games (Syracuse and Miami) where Coleman’s release didn’t waste motion.
He has an efficient wipe that he’ll combine with a stick to work past defenders playing over him as he works up the seam. He also has an efficient shed in tight quarters to set up the fade.
He’ll use the wipe as a counter to a one-step stretch or double up with an arm-drum. He has a good swat-swim combination. He’ll also steal a release with a patient but a sudden double up with his inside foot after diving inside against off-coverage.
Coleman’s two-quick is explosive and he follows up with a wipe. He’ll use the two-quick to steal a release at the top of a stem on an intermediate route. He’ll also use a hip shift at the top of his stems on vertical routes just after diving inside or outside off coverage. He counters defenders with a swat-swim combination.
In the run game, Coleman will steal release with footwork and hand usage. He uses a hesitation to set up a wall-off of the defender to the outside.
He combines a hesitation with a double-up effectively to get inside a defender.
He’s patient but sudden with all of his release moves and it helps him earn position early on.
Separation: Coleman consistently stacks defenders whenever he earns an opportunity to do so—as an outside or slot receiver. He’ll often stack late at the top of the stem.
Coleman has the acceleration to earn a step against outside cornerbacks within the first 12-15 yards. Still, he’s probably at his best against off-coverage and in the intermediate passing game.
He sells the vertical effectively off the line with his pads down and digging hard into an early sprint.
Route Stems: Against off-coverage playing inside shade, Coleman will attack the leverage of the defender as part of setting up his break. He’ll work wide or dive inside the off-coverage.
Route Setups: Against off-coverage playing inside shade, Coleman follows up the attack of inside leverage with a bend to the outside to sell the fade before dropping his weight fully into a hard break for the sideline comeback.
He’ll use a stick-and-wipe combination to work inside-out of an off-coverage defender up the seam and then stack the opponent and set him up with an inset or a peek at the top of the stem. He’ll use a good shoulder fake paired with the peek.
Coleman uses pace changes as he sets up defenders with a stem that widens or narrows. He will also attack the back of off-coverage.
With vertical routes, he’ll attack the leverage of the defender first and then take the defender’s back near the top of his stem. Or, he’ll work away from the defender’s leverage during the initial stem to make the defender think he’s attacking the leverage with his break. This baits the defender into thinking he’s one step ahead when Coleman is actually making a third move to trick the defender.
This combination of moves gets the defender to stop his feet because Coleman then attacks the defender’s back and can run by the coverage.
Route Breaks: Coleman only needs two steps to execute the weight drop into a hard break and snaps his turns before working hard back to the quarterback. This is a good drop-and-pop technique
After his initial break, if he sees a zone defender cutting off his break, he’ll immediately transition to the open area.
His speed breaks have good break steps, drive steps, and line steps. They are flat enough to earn a flat break on speed-outs. He also has a one-long and three-quick break where the three-quick steps include a flat drive and line step. He works back to the ball immediately out of the break. His weight drop is effective here, but not deep.
Coleman can get quick separation on breaks back to the ball if the QB throws with anticipation.
Zone Routes: Coleman works to depth against the second-level defender that he identifies and throttles down to the appropriate spot. When working across the middle of a zone, he’ll slow his pace so he doesn’t run into the other defender.
Route Boundary: Coleman is aware of the boundary and will tap both feet inbounds, adjusting his stride to do so or dragging after he dotted them to the ground. Or, when he leaves his feet for the ball, he’ll land with at least a knee or elbow in bounds.
Pass Tracking: Coleman displays late hands during fades against tight coverage at is front hip. He tracks the ball over his shoulder against tight coverage and can make late adjustments with his break to veer inside or outside to the ball. Coleman can make late turns on fades so he’s working inside-out against a defender at his inside hip and finishes the play by shielding the opponent with his back as he makes the catch.
In 2022, Coleman would leave is feet for targets thrown behind him on slants where he could have extended with over hand position and kept his feet on the ground. Coleman displayed signs of improvement during the first game of 2023, keeping his feet on the ground with similar targets.
He can make the clutch catch over his shoulder late in the game with a defender tight and him extending one-handed for the ball.
Hands/Catch Radius: Coleman extends his arms from his frame to get his hands under a low target. He can high-point the ball with a tight overhand position. He can extend wide from his chest and use an overhand position.
Out of nine catches, he had two where his hands weren’t in an optimal position to earn the ball—clapping on a slant thrown at his back hip with high-low position and his third touchdown, a back-shoulder fade that he caught underhanded. When he clap attacks, the ball is at the height of his numbers or waistline.
He has a wide catch radius that he could utilize even better if he becomes more consistent with his positioning to the ball. He is capable of the clutch catch.
Position: When he has to extend his frame back to the ball to dig out the target, he will turn his frame to avoid landing on the ball—embracing the fall. Coleman will jump up and through for the target. He must develop a greater consistency with using the proper attack. He’ll leap and extend with under hand position within range of the defender’s hands when he should work harder to earn a position where he can leap and high-point.
Focus: Coleman displays the hand strength to pull the ball away from a defender ripping at his hands on a highpoint. Coleman has the concentration to hand contact to his chest and hands as he’s falling the ground on a fade.
Transitions: Coleman catches and pierces with slants. He also spots defenders blocking his break path after he is forced to make an adjustment on a target wide of his frame and spins away from them.
Elusiveness: Coleman has the quickness to sidestep defenders playing over the top of him in the open field. He can open his hips with a step pointing 90 degrees from the opponent but sometimes opts for crossing his feet.
When he drops his weight to transition from a lateral approach to a downhill approach, he only needs two quick steps and this can get him inside edge containment. He can also use two steps to come to a quick stop and undercut a shot downhill. He can stop fast enough to force pursuit to overrun their angle.
He repeatedly ducks under contact and turns wraps into reaches.
He’ll spin off contact and at least force the defender to wrap as he falls forward.
Vision: Coleman spots open space and can work toward it. He identifies pursuit and alters his path to account for their chase. He’s patient enough to pick his way through traffic. He lacks the top acceleration to turn these chain-moving gains into breakaway plays, but he can create yardage.
He can occasionally try cutbacks on plays where he had a sure bet with space available to him play side, but he’s a savvy runner who sets up blocked and unblocked defenders who will attack tight creases. He has skill as a return specialist although not likely to earn those opportunities in the NFL>
Power: Coleman uses a stiff arm to swat past opponents as he works inside or outside of their tackle attempts. He can pull through wraps to his legs when running downhill.
Direct Contact Balance:
Indirect Contact Balance: Coleman will bounce off indirect hits to his pad from defensive backs when headging downhill and dropping his pads into the contact. He can take a hit to his side from a cornerback and remain upright.
Ball Security: Coleman uses high-and-tight security in the open field. He’ll switch the ball to the boundary arm or the arm away from the nearest pursuit.
Blocking: Coleman works patiently downfield as a stalk blocker, earning a square position with a squat stance. He attacks with his hands tight and elbows bent to deliver a strike to the chest plate of the defender. The uppercut motion could be more explosive so he delivers a punch rather than extends his arms. He overextends his frame into the strike.
He can shuffle his feet well enough to slide with an opponent but the effort to dictate the action from the initial punch puts him in a passive role against the defender and he usually doesn’t have success preventing a defender’s redirect.
Coleman can set up the inside with a flat lead with Most Dangerous Man blocks. He can take the correct shoulder and work the defender away from the pursuit.
Coleman is an effective combo blocker, sealing an LB inside toward his tackle with a push and peeling off to the safety.
Durability: Played through a partial hip flexor tear/groin injury throughout the fall of 2022
Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: Coleman is a boom-bust fantasy selection because he’s a clear talent, but his usage could make his fantasy production murky. There’s a clear upside where he could become a high-volume fantasy WR1 in an NFL WR’s role, but a downside where he could stuck with a pro quarterback lacking the game to even help Coleman earn fantasy WR2 value. Coleman’s ADP will likely range from the end of Round 1 to early Round 3, pre-draft. Post-Draft, if he’s paired with an excellent timing-quarterback, I’d consider him in early Round 2.
Boiler/Film Room Material (Links to plays):