Matt Waldman shares his Pre-NFL Draft scouting report on WR Jayden Reed, a player whose game Matt believed had a narrow margin between good and great.
An Immediate Starter Grade
Reed was one of my favorite receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft class. Stefon Diggs is Reed’s aspirational comparison, but my immediate comparison was 10-year veteran Laveranues Coles, who delivered at least 845 yards for 7 of those seasons, including consecutive 80-catch, 1200-yard seasons as a Jet and a Commander.
It’s why in the RSP Post-Draft analysis I thought Reed was an underrated fit for the Green Bay Packers. Reed was my 14th-ranked rookie in the RSP Post-Draft publication that’s published every year within a week after the NFL Draft. Reed was in my second-highest tier on my post-draft board as my 14th-ranked player out of 217 rookies and 1 of the 3 most underrated options in the first 2 tiers of the RSP Post-Draft Cheatsheet.
Every year for my RSP Pre-Draft/Post-Draft subscribers, I compare my post-draft rankings to the average draft position of several dynasty rookie drafts. Players taken earlier or later than +/- five spots from their ADP earn an overrated or underrated value. I also give the number of spots the player is over- or underrated.
The RSP’s analysis on Reed had him “Under 8,” meaning I valued Reed at pick 14 (round/pick 2.02 in a 12-team league) and that valuation was approximately 8 spots higher than where you probably needed to draft him. His average ADP was 2.10.
The purpose of this “Under 8” label is to tell dynasty GMs that I value Reed almost a round higher than the average fantasy league and that you likely have as many as 8 spots after 2.02 (2.10) to take Reed if you want to maximize your draft-day value. The closer you get to that 2.10 spot, the less likely he’d be available but that Under 8 label gives you wiggle room.
I follow my advice. I drafted Reed in multiple leagues this year. I took him at 2.10 in a league where I have a strong corps of receivers that includes Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, and Diggs. I took Reed at 2.06 (and Nacua at 4.06) as an effort to help out my aging depth chart of Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen, and Michael Thomas.
I also took Reed at 15.12 in keeper format where I just earned my second consecutive title. Here’s my analysis from the RSP Post-Draft that summarizes why I recommended Reed as a second-round value in rookie drafts.
Reed’s size lowers expectations for the fantasy public. He’s also signing with an offense that has two receivers much of that fantasy public is excited about and they don’t see Reed delivering starter upside short-term.
A big reason behind that sentiment is the unproven ability of Jordan Love. This is fairest of the three reasons to have a cautious view of Reed. Love doesn’t have a lucrative contract with the Packers relative to most NFL starters, which means the team isn’t sold on him and there’s room to move on quickly.
Still, I’m willing to tout Reed as a third-round value because he can play all three positions and he’s better at the catch point than Romeo Doubs. The fantasy public still remembers the Aaron Rodgers preseason quote about Doubs making a big play every day during training camp but may be missing that the Packers had to scheme him open more than what’s desirable for a starter.
With the Packers entering a new world on offense, the roles in the passing game are up for grabs. Reed’s versatility and reliability make him a worthwhile bet…
…I’m confident in Reed’s ability. I’m not confident in his role or the play of Jordan Love. If Love has developed during his time away from the field, Reed could be a cornerstone of a good passing offense. He might even become one of the top two weapons.
If Love struggles, the team struggles, and the coaches get fired, Reed could be thrown out with the rest of the young players from an old regime. That’s the risk with a talented young player joining a team with an unstable or unproven quarterback.
Love proved his time away from the field was worthwhile for his development and Reed proved he had more immediate value than many prognosticated.
Back on April 1, Reed earned an immediate starter grade in my pre-NFL Draft scouting from the 2023 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. You can pre-order the 2024 RSP anytime before its annual April 1 publication. Entering its 19th season, the RSP is the most in-depth and comprehensive examination of offensive skill position prospects available. You can learn more here.
Here’s the complete report on Reed.
WR Jayden Reed RSP Scouting Profile
RSP Ranking: WR7
Height/Weight: 5-11/187 School: Michigan State
Player Comparison Spectrum: Stefon Diggs -Laveranues Coles/X – K.J. Hamler
Depth of Talent Score: 85.5 = Starter: Starting immediately with a large role and learning on the go.
Games Tracked (Opponent/Date/Link):
The Elevator Pitch: Reed is a difficult boom-bust evaluation if you define the “boom” as elite and the “bust” as a valued contributor. From the standpoint of becoming a professional football player, Reed isn’t a boom-bust prospect.
However, if you’re trying to ascertain how good Reed can be, the swing between a top-12 producer and receiver who rarely delivers season-long production inside the top 36 receivers is big. This quandary underscores how small the margin is between good and great.
It comes down to this with Reed: If his hand position at the catch point were a little sharper and his release and route game a little more refined against top-tier cornerback prospects, he’d be the top receiver on my board.
The fact is, Reed’s pass-catching techniques can remain as they are and he could still deliver as a quality NFL starter. At the same time, a few mishandled targets early in his career could alter his confidence and his team’s and change the perception of his future value.
If he holds up well against top cornerbacks at the catch-point and as a route runner, a few lapses with hands positions won’t be a major concern. If he doesn’t and he doesn’t refine these two areas to razor-sharp precision, he could wind up a bigger version of K.J. Hamler—a compelling athlete with a contributor status off the bench.
If he shuts the doors on these concerns—and his film shows he’s more than capable of doing so—he could earn legitimate comparisons to Stefon Diggs.
Reed consistently wins tight-window targets thanks to his positioning at the catch point. He knows how to earn position late in the target’s trajectory and protect the ball when possible. He can take contact and maintain possession—even when making adjustments high, low, or well away from his frame.
The biggest issue with Reed’s pass-catching is that his hands can be too wide of the other and the ball slips through. He’s not a clap-attack receiver as much as he fails to get his hands completely together with targets where he’s making adjustments to earn position.
If ticking off the list of things Reed can do as a route runner, the sum of the parts would place him in the highest tier of the RSP’s evaluation. However, he has to prove he can win more often against physical and savvy cornerbacks during his releases and stems.
Reed also has to do more to set up defenders on vertical routes in the same way he can with shorter stems. And, his intermediate breaks need more snap when turning inside or outside—especially against defenders capable of tight coverage. If Reed can improve in these areas, he could play all three receiver positions in the NFL.
Reed excels after the catch. He’s a skilled return specialist with kickoffs and punts and his eye for rushing lanes translates well to the receiving game.
Reed is patient with blocks, he anticipates lanes that open with or without blocks, and he’s a mature creator when in tight quarters with unblocked defenders surrounding him. He’ll take what’s given to him downhill, but he knows when to incorporate his toolbox of moves to generate lanes that didn’t appear to exist.
A tenacious blocker when he earns good position early, Reed can get better in this arena when he continues to refine his strikes. He’s an asset with or without the ball and at various spots on the field as a receiver, a runner, and a return specialist.
The difference between good and great is a big swing in terms of production and that’s where Reed’s NFL potential is teetering. I’d be willing to invest if his off-field and injury history (beyond what the public knows) checks out.
Where is the player inconsistent? His hand positions can be a little wide and it leads to targets slipping through his hands.
What is the best scheme fit? They use him on either side of the formation and in the slot. He’s used as the X (split end) and the Z (flanker).
What is his ceiling scenario? A primary threat used in all three roles and production leader in the passing game.
What is his floor scenario? A fourth or fifth option in the passing game as the team’s third or fourth receiver and is restricted too often to schemed targets that exploit his skills as a ballcarrier.
Physical: He’s notably light-footed and quick.
Technical: His positioning in contested situations gives him room to earn plays and protect the ball more than he’s credited.
Conceptual: Reed made the game-winning catch against tight coverage on a fade near the boundary in overtime against Wisconsin. He took contact to the chest with the defender tight and showed late hands and boundary awareness. He had two focus drops against Ohio State in 2022 where he transitioned before he secured the ball catch to his body.
Intuitive: He has an excellent feel for when to take what the defense gives him as a ballcarrier and when to create.
Build: About 5-7 pounds of muscle shy of Stefon Diggs.
Releases: Reed has a staggered stance with 80/20 weight distribution favoring the front leg. He rolls off the front foot without wasted motion with enough routes to know that he can do so, but not enough to give him credit in some games. Too often, he rocks off the back foot or takes an extra step in some game. In others, such as the Michigan game last year, he had no wasted motion. When in his stance, Reed’s arms hang at either side of his front leg.
Reed has a one-step stretch and will use it to steal a release in the run game. He’ll use a shed when he meets off-coverage during his stem. He’ll use a wipe against man-to-man. He also has a three-quick release to the inside against man-to-man. He’ll also use a two-quick or the double-up. His two-quick can be too narrow to move an opponent.
His hip shift against off-coverage is quick enough to get him outside the defender. So is his stick. His pairing of the one-step stretch and the double-up is effective against man-to-man when running intermediate routes.
He has a double-up with a wipe counter with excellent patience and suddenness, but there are lapses where the double-up leaves him slightly off-balance and stumbling through the wipe. He also has a two-quick and a wipe as well as a one-step stretch with a wipe.
He can use his feet to set up his hands more often. He has lapses during stretches of games where he’ll use his hands without setting them up with his feet. He also has lapses where he lacks a balance between patience and suddenness to truly sell his footwork when using the hesitation, one-step stretch, and the double-up.
There’s potential for a blade release where he dips the shoulder and uses his inside arm violently to shed or rip, but he didn’t emphasize either move with the range and violence needed to make it effective.
Still, there are games where Reed’s patience and suddenness are present with all of his moves.
Separation: Reed gets his shoulders over his pads to sell the vertical potential of a route. His eyes face downfield with his head up. He can stack a cornerback after beating him within the first 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Route Stems: Reed dives or widens stems and runs them at full speed.
Route Setups: He sells the double move effectively with his eyes on the out-and-up. He’ll sell the out with a turn of his eyes, pads, and chest. He dives inside and then sets up the over route against off-coverage with a stair-step downhill before reaching the top of his stem.
Reed shows the potential for threatening the back of a defender playing off coverage but he can do more to attack the back longer than a stab in that direction at the top of the stem. He does this better with shorter routes after diving inside. He’ll use a head fake to the inside or outside as a peek to set up off-coverage when running a vertical stem on an intermediate or deep route.
Against off-coverage, Reed varies his pacing to set up vertical breaks. He’ll also use a hip shift and he can use it against off-coverage with shallower depth than what you typically see a receiver use it.
Route Breaks: His out portion of the out and up includes a sharp drive and line step. This is also true with speed outs. Reed doesn’t cultivate a snap with his turns.
He has an elongated break step and weight drop into stop routes. He has a quick one-long and two quick break back to the quarterback and he shows that he can attack faster to the quarterback when the route calls for it
Zone Routes: Reed works to depth after identifying the second-level defender. He tempos his break across the open zone, turning his head when he has cleared the buzz or rollover defender.
Reed points out blitzes to his quarterback, pre-snap, and adjusts his route to accommodate where the space left behind will be.
When his first break doesn’t earn a target, he’ll work toward the quarterback in the open zone to maintain an open target
Route Boundary: Reed is aware of the boundary and he’ll attempt to toe-tap inbounds. He would earn better opportunities at the boundary if he used an overhand position with numbers-high targets so he could attack the ball away from his frame and use that space to drag his feet inbounds.
He will tight-rope the boundary for targets leaning outside the field of play when he can make the catch in a static position. He can also drag his feet inside the boundary when using the optimal hand position.
Pass Tracking: He tracks the ball over his shoulder and can do so with short targets arriving with a low and fast trajectory. He snatches the ball with an underhand position. He displays late hands with fades.
There are some targets over the middle in the intermediate zone where he leaps unnecessarily for the ball at helmet or just above helmet level.
He has a good feel for which targets he can transition his position downhill on out- or in-breaking routes before he makes the catch.
Hands/Catch Radius: He’ll use an overhand position with targets at the numbers. His overhand position has lapses where the fingertips aren’t together or the palms facing the ball, which can lead the ball to slide through his hands.
He can catch the ball thrown into his frame at the back shoulder of his break point while still working toward the front shoulder. He’ll use an underhand position.
He catches the ball wide of his frame with an overhand position or underhand position when necessary. His hands can be a little too wide when digging out low throws where he must dive for the ball with full extension, but he also has targets on film where he executes these scenarios perfectly.
He high-points and wins targets on corner fades and over the defender in his chest.
Position: Reed has a well-position jump through for the football on a fade, earning position without leaning away from the target. He’ll also earn the position on a back-shoulder fade without jumping. He does a good job of buying back horizontal space between himself and the defender late in the route.
There are fades with coverage in his face where he has to pull the ball away from the defender, he will pull back against defenders reaching from one side.
He embraces the fall when falling to the ground, turning to avoid landing on the ball.
Focus: Reed can take a hard hit to the back, chest, or front of his legs immediately after securing the ball. He also earns position on fades against tight coverage and wins the ball against it. He’s consistently effective against tight coverage on fades or jump-throughs.
Transitions: He will catch and pierce effectively as well as obey the location of the ball.
Elusiveness: He’ll spin through reaches and wraps to extend runs through contact. He’ll also use tight spins in either direction to completely avoid pursuit in heavy traffic. He’ll hop over shots to his lower legs. He only needs two steps to transition downhill or undercut pursuit.
Vision: When he works across the field, Reed has a good feel for the depth of pursuit and when to dip under them before working around them. He has the patience and confidence to work tight rushing lanes as both a runner after the catch and a return specialist. He finds lanes in scenarios where he’s dealing with multiple unblocked defenders but at the same time, he sees the field well enough to know when to take what’s available downhill.
Power: He keeps his feet moving through wraps and reaches and his quickness and acceleration can make it difficult for an opponent to earn a clean wrap which will result in Reed continuing downfield through contact. Reed has a stiff arm to ward off the reach of defenders.
Direct Contact Balance: I haven’t seen him face direct collisions, but he’ll likely stalemate defensive backs, at best.
Indirect Contact Balance: He can stalemate glancing shots from a safety or cornerback.
Blocking: Reed has to be a little quicker to slide across the frame of an edge defender to cut him off to seal the outside for a runner.
As a stalk blocker, Reed will steal a release and then extend his hands into the chest with tight position of his arms and deliver a hard jab while moving his feet. He doesn’t use an uppercut. He also doesn’t do a lot of punching, which leads to defenders initiating contact and working past him quickly.
He’ll break down, drop his weight, and shuffle his feet. He overextends into contact because he prefers to jab rather than uppercut. Reed must learn to close the gap and use the uppercut or he’ll get beat consistently after the first point of contact.
Even so, Reed can be a feisty competitor at the point of contact and when he can get his hands into the defender’s chest, he’ll sustain contact through the whistle. He often gets his hands tight enough to work into the chest and because he’s so quick-footed, he maintains his position through redirects and can take the defender out of the play.
Ball Security: Reed carries the ball under his boundary-side arm and high to his chest.
Durability: Foot injury against Ohio State in 2021 that cost him that game. Arraigned on DIU in 2021 of February. Sat out in 2019 by NCAA rule after transferring from. Western Michigan. Head injury vs Michigan in 2018 which was his second game in college football and returned the following week.
Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: Reed is one of those receivers whose NFL Draft capital could vary between the second and fifth rounds. It means his dynasty value won’t solidify until mid-May.
When we translate the Corporate America evaluation game to NFL Scouting—and it happens, Rick Spielman recently shared with CBS’s Ryan Wilson a mistake he made as a young scout with grading Robert Porcher—scouts will often assign fourth-round grades to players for two reasons:
- They like the player more than they think they should and are concerned about making a stand for him.
- They dislike the player more than they think they should and don’t want to be vocal about it.
I bet Reed is probably in that range for Big Draft and some scouts. In dynasty leagues with rookie drafts before the NFL Draft, leverage that information and see if you can get Reed somewhere between picks 25-36.
If Reed winds up a Day Three pick, consider him a boom-bust investment that will likely be worth the lower cost. At this point, I find it difficult not to embrace the risk with him because he’s unlikely seen as a second-round pick in fantasy leagues before the draft and you won’t have to make a steep investment.
Boiler/Film Room Material (Links to plays):
And of course, if you want to know about the rookies from this draft class, you will find the most in-depth analysis of offensive skill players available (QB, RB, WR, and TE), with the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio for $21.95–currently available for $19.95 via early-bird discount that runs through December 21, 2023.
Matt’s new RSP Dynasty Rankings and Two-Year Projections Package is available for $24.95
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