Waldman examines players capable of top-tier wide receiver fantasy production in 2016.
What does a prototypical fantasy receiver look like in a 12-team league? Is he earning a lopsided majority of the workload in the passing game? Is he the leading option in a balanced attack? Does a specific combination of physical skills matter?
Do teammates of quality “take away” targets from other teammates? This week, the Gut Check examines these questions and profiles receivers with the skills and supporting cast to earn top-12 fantasy production at the position.
Between 2005-2015, there has been a correlation between top-12 fantasy receivers and at least one fantasy starter at receiver or tight end that forces opposing defenses to respect balance in the passing game.
I examined 11 years of top-36 wide receiver rankings and top-12 tight end rankings. The percentage of the team representation as WR2s, WR3s, and TE1s during that 11-year period (72.4%) is lower than the percentage of WR1s with at least one fantasy-worthy cohort (78.8%), which is a sign of positive correlation. Here’s the data for those of you curious.
Pct. of Teams Represented among WR2s-WR3s-TE1s
| Year | WR2/WR3/TE1 | Teams | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | 32 | 62.5% |
| 2014 | 25 | 32 | 78.1% |
| 2013 | 24 | 32 | 75.0% |
| 2012 | 22 | 32 | 68.8% |
| 2011 | 21 | 32 | 65.6% |
| 2010 | 20 | 32 | 62.5% |
| 2009 | 25 | 32 | 78.1% |
| 2008 | 24 | 32 | 75.0% |
| 2007 | 24 | 32 | 75.0% |
| 2006 | 23 | 32 | 71.9% |
| 2005 | 27 | 32 | 84.4% |
| Total | 255 | 352 | 72.4% |
Pct. of WR1s With Fantasy Starter Cohorts at WR or TE
| WR 1 Sample Size | 132 |
| Qualify | 104 |
| Exceptions | 28 |
| Pct. | 78.8% |
Top Fantasy Wide Receivers With Starter Teammates at Receiver and/or Tight End
Note: Rankings in parenthesis are provided for the secondary options (“Starter Teammates”). Quarterbacks listed for teams with three more fantasy starters or a single WR1 that didn’t have any fantasy starter teammates (listed with an asterisk).
| Year | Player | Starter Teammates | Starter Teammates | Starter Teammates | QB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Antonio Brown | Martavis Bryant (32) | ||||
| 2015 | Julio Jones* | Matt Ryan (18) | ||||
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall | Eric Decker (11) | ||||
| 2015 | Allen Robinson | Allen Hurns (14) | ||||
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, Jr. | Rueben Randle (29) | ||||
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins* | Brian Hoyer (26), Ryan Mallett (36) | ||||
| 2015 | Doug Baldwin* | Russell Wilson (3) | ||||
| 2015 | A.J. Green | Tyler Eifert (6) | ||||
| 2015 | Larry Fitzgerald | John Brown (22) | Michael Floyd (34) | Carson Palmer (5) | ||
| 2015 | Calvin Johnson | Golden Tate (33) | ||||
| 2015 | Eric Decker | Brandon Marshall (3) | ||||
| 2015 | Brandin Cooks | Willie Snead (35) | Ben Watson (7) | Drew Brees (6) | ||
| 2014 | Antonio Brown | Heath Miller (12) | ||||
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson | Randall Cobb (6) | ||||
| 2014 | Dez Bryant | Jason Witten (10) | ||||
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas | Emmanuel Sanders | (7) Julius Thomas (8) | Peyton Manning (4) | ||
| 2014 | Odell Beckham | Larry Donnell (11) | ||||
| 2014 | Randall Cobb | Jordy Nelson (2) | ||||
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders | Demaryius Thomas | 4) Julius Thomas (8) | Peyton Manning (4) | ||
| 2014 | Julio Jones | Roddy White (26) | ||||
| 2014 | Jeremy Maclin | Jordan Matthews (24) | ||||
| 2014 | T.Y. Hilton | Coby Fleener (6) | ||||
| 2014 | Mike Evans | Vincent Jackson (36) | ||||
| 2014 | Alshon Jeffery | Brandon Marshall (34) | Martellus Bennett (5) | Jay Cutler (13) | ||
| 2013 | Josh Gordon | Jordan Cameron (4) | ||||
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas | Eric Decker (8) | Wes Welker (21) | Julius Thomas (3) | Peyton Manning (1) | |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson* | Matt Stafford (4) | ||||
| 2013 | A.J. Green | Marvin Jones (22) | ||||
| 2013 | Brandon Marshall | Alshon Jeffery (9) | Martellus Bennett (10) | Jay Cutler (24) | ||
| 2013 | Dez Bryant | jason Witten (5) | ||||
| 2013 | Antonio Brown | Emmanuel Sanders (3 | ) Jerricho Cotchery (31) | Ben Roethlisberger (8) | ||
| 2013 | Eric Decker | Demaryius Thomas (2) | Wes Welker (21) | Julius Thomas (3) | Peyton Manning (1) | |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery | Brandon Marshall (5) | Martellus Bennett (10) | Jay Cutler (24) | ||
| 2013 | DeSean Jackson | Riley Cooper (25) | ||||
| 2013 | Jordy Nelson* | Aaron Rodgers (26) | ||||
| 2013 | Andre Johnson* | Matt Schaub (30) | ||||
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson* | Matt Stafford (9) | ||||
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall* | Jay Cutler (23) | ||||
| 2012 | Dez Bryant | Miles Austin (26) | Jason Witten (5) | Tony Romo ( 8) | ||
| 2012 | A.J. Green | Jermaine Gresham (10) | ||||
| 2012 | Demaryius Thomas | Eric Decker (7) | ||||
| 2012 | Vincent Jackson | Mike Williams (18) | ||||
| 2012 | Eric Decker | Demaryius Thomas (5) | ||||
| 2012 | Andre Johnson | Owen Daniels (8) | ||||
| 2012 | Julio Jones | Tony Gonzalez (3) | Roddy White (10) | Matt Ryan (6) | ||
| 2012 | Roddy White | Julio Jones (9) | Tony Gonzalez (3) | Matt Ryan (6) | ||
| 2012 | Marques Colston | Lance Moore (21) | Jimmy Graham (1) | Drew Brees (1) | ||
| 2012 | Wes Welker | Brandon Lloyd (34) | Rob Gronkoswki (2) | Tom Brady | (5) | |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | Brandon Pettigrew (11) | ||||
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson | Greg Jennings (18) | Jermichael Finley (5) | Aaron Rodgers (2) | ||
| 2011 | Wes Welker | Rob Gronkowski (1) | ||||
| 2011 | Victor Cruz | Hakeem Nicks (12) | ||||
| 2011 | Larry Fitzgerald* | John Skelton (29) | ||||
| 2011 | Steve Smith (Car)* | Cam Newton (4) | ||||
| 2011 | Percy Harvin* | Christian Ponder (28) | ||||
| 2011 | Roddy White | Tony Gonzalez (4) | Julio Jones (17) | Matt Ryan (8) | ||
| 2011 | Mike Wallace | Antonio Brown (24) | ||||
| 2011 | Vincent Jackson | Malcom Floyd (32) | Antonio Gates (7) | Philip Rivers (9) | ||
| 2011 | Marques Colston | Jimmy Graham (2) | Lance Moore (34) | Drew Brees (1) | ||
| 2011 | Hakeem Nicks | Victor Cruz (4) | ||||
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd* | Kyle Orton (16) | ||||
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe* | Matt Cassel (14) | ||||
| 2010 | Roddy White | Tony Gonzalez (8) | ||||
| 2010 | Greg Jennings* | Aaron Rodgers (1) | ||||
| 2010 | Mike Wallace* | Ben Roethlisberger (18) | ||||
| 2010 | Calvin Johnson | Brandon Pettigrew (12) | ||||
| 2010 | Reggie Wayne | Pierre Garcon (31) | Austin Collie (32) | Peyton Manning (2) | ||
| 2010 | Hakeem Nicks | Mario Manningham (17) | ||||
| 2010 | Andre Johnson* | Matt Schaub (8) | ||||
| 2010 | Steve Johnson* | Ryan Fitzpatrick (17) | ||||
| 2010 | Mike Williams | Kellen Winslow Jr (5) | ||||
| 2010 | Miles Austin | Jason Witten (1) | ||||
| 2009 | Andre Johnson* | Matt Schaub (3) | ||||
| 2009 | Randy Moss | Wes Welker (12) | ||||
| 2009 | Miles Austin | Roy Williams (36) | Jason Witten (8) | Tony Romo (5) | ||
| 2009 | DeSean Jackson | Brent Celek (4) | ||||
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald | Anquan Boldin (23) | ||||
| 2009 | Reggie Wayne | Austin Collie (3) | Dallas Clark (2) | Peyton Manning (4) | ||
| 2009 | Roddy White | Tony Gonzalez (5) | ||||
| 2009 | Sidney Rice | Visanthe Shiancoe (6) | Percy Harvin (25) | Brett Favre (6) | ||
| 2009 | Brandon Marshall* | Kyle Orton (16) | ||||
| 2009 | Vincent Jackson | Antonio Gates (3) | Chris Chambers (35) | Philip Rivers (6) | ||
| 2009 | Steve Smith (NYG) | Hakeem Nicks (28) | Mario Manningham (29) | Eli Manning (10) | ||
| 2009 | Wes Welker | Randy Moss (2) | ||||
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | Anquan Boldin (7) | Steve Breaston (28) | Kurt Warner (4) | ||
| 2008 | Andre Johnson | Kevin Walter (19) | Owen Daniels (6) | Matt Schaub (21) | ||
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson* | Dan Orlovsky (33) | ||||
| 2008 | Greg Jennings | Donald Driver (23) | ||||
| 2008 | Steve Smith (Car) | Mushin Muhammad (26) | ||||
| 2008 | Roddy White* | Matt Ryan (15) | ||||
| 2008 | Anquan Boldin | Larry Fitzgerald (1) | Steve Breaston (28) | Kurt Warner (4) | ||
| 2008 | Antonio Bryant* | Jeff Garcia (22) | ||||
| 2008 | Terrell Owens | Jason Witten (2) | ||||
| 2008 | Randy Moss | Wes Welker (21) | ||||
| 2008 | Brandon Marshall | Eddie Royal (20) | Tony Scheffler (12) | Jay Cutler (3) | ||
| 2008 | Vincent Jackson | Antonio Gates (4) | ||||
| 2007 | Randy Moss | Wes Welker (11) | ||||
| 2007 | Terrell Owens | Patrick Crayton (34) | Jason Witten (1) | Donovan McNabb (7) | ||
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards | Kellen Winslow Jr (4) | ||||
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne | Dallas Clark (5) | ||||
| 2007 | Larry Fitzgerald | Anquan Boldin (19) | ||||
| 2007 | Chad Johnson | T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7) | ||||
| 2007 | T.J. Houshmadnzadeh | Chad Johnson (6) | ||||
| 2007 | Marques Colston* | Drew Brees (4) | ||||
| 2007 | Brandon Marshall | Tony Scheffler (10) | ||||
| 2007 | Plaxico Burress | Jeremy Shockey (11) | ||||
| 2007 | Wes Welker | Randy Moss (1) | ||||
| 2007 | Greg Jennings | Donald Driver (30) | Donald Lee (9) | Brett Favre (8) | ||
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison | Reggie Wayne (3) | ||||
| 2006 | Terrell Owens | Terry Glenn (20) | Jason Witten (12) | Tony Romo (2) | ||
| 2006 | Reggie Wayne | Marvin Harrison (1) | ||||
| 2006 | Chad Johnson | T.J. Houshmandzadeh (11) | Chris Henry (31) | Carson Palmer (9 | ) | |
| 2006 | Donald Driver* | Brett Favre (8) | ||||
| 2006 | Torry Holt | Isaac Bruce (25) | ||||
| 2006 | Lee Evans* | J.P. Losman (14) | ||||
| 2006 | Steve Smith (Car) | Keyshawn Johnson (35) | ||||
| 2006 | Javon Walker* | Jake Plummer (24) | ||||
| 2006 | Roy Williams | Mike Furrey (19) | ||||
| 2006 | T.J. Houshmadnzad | Chad Johnson (4) | ||||
| 2006 | Plaxico Burress | Jeremy Shockey (7) | ||||
| 2005 | Steve Smith (Car)* | Jake Delhomme (12) | ||||
| 2005 | Larry Fitzgerald | Anquan Boldin (8) | ||||
| 2005 | Santana Moss | Chris Cooley (4) | ||||
| 2005 | Chad Johnson | T.J. Houshmandzadeh (14) | ||||
| 2005 | Joey Galloway* | Chris Simms (27) | ||||
| 2005 | Torry Holt | Kevin Curtis (27) | ||||
| 2005 | Chris Chambers | Randy McMichael (9) | ||||
| 2005 | Anquan Boldin | Larry Fitzgerald (2) | ||||
| 2005 | Marvin Harrison | Reggie Wayne (21) | ||||
| 2005 | Hines Ward | Heath Miller (12) | ||||
| 2005 | Plaxico Burress | Amani Toomer (33) | Jeremy Shockey (2) | Eli Manning (4) | ||
| 2005 | Terry Glenn | Jason Witten (6) | Keyshawn Johnson (28) | Dre Bledsoe (6) |
OBSERVATIONS
Balanced Passing Games Rule
For the past 11 years, nearly 80 percent of the top-12 receivers come from balanced offenses with productive players that put defenses in a bind and create opportunities for primary options. Sometimes it’s a seam stretcher and reliable check-down magnet from the slot like Tyler Eifert who helps A.J. Green see optimal targets. Other teams have a “possession plus” receiver capable of plays all over the field like Allen Hurns complementing Allen Robinson.
One response to “The Gut Check No.367: What Makes a Fantasy WR1?”
Deandre Hopkins bucking the trend on this one