The Gut Check No.333: Pivot Players


Photo by Kyle Engman.

Photo by Kyle Engman.

1+19=20 . . .

12+8=20 . . .

4+16=20 . . .

There are lots of paths that lead to the same outcome. It is the same with preparing a draft strategy. As long as it’s a systematic method of travel–projections, average draft position, tiers, etc.–a fantasy owner will build a strong foundation towards a winning season.

Some begin studying from the top-down; I prefer working from the bottom-up. There are advantages to beginning with late-round players:

  • It’s a quicker way of identifying the depth of each position.
  • Working from the bottom-up reveals the most favorable draft strategies.
  • Studying the late-rounds first gives owners an early jump on compiling a smart free agent list.

This article doesn’t go step-by-step into developing draft strategies or a free agent list; there is more prep work to do before addressing an over-arching plan. Today’s piece is a scouting expedition of potential values available in the 10th round or later. This is not an exhaustive list, but some of my favorites to keep in mind

These options have ADPs that fall into the second half of a 20-round draft, but their values are high enough that they warrant a pivotal investment in an overall draft strategy. Some of these players will see their value rise high enough that they will get picked inside the 10th round, but I’m expecting most of them to remain in their current ADP range.

THE SECOND-HALF RISER: QB TEDDY BRIDGEWATER 

The Vikings’ rookie starter was the No.11 fantasy quarterback during the final 7 weeks of the 2014 season. Only Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill and Tony Romo had higher completion percentages during this stretch.

For some context, Brees, Tannehill and Romo all had top-2- fantasy performers at running back during this stretch:DeMarco Murray (No.4), Lamar Miller (No.11), and Mark Ingram (No.18). Matt Asiata of the Vikings was the 21st-ranked fantasy runner during the same stretch.

Brees, Tannehill and Romo also had the No.2, No.15, No.16, No.23, and No.24 fantasy receivers and the No.6, No.10, and No.14 fantasy tight ends in their arsenals from weeks 11-17. Bridgewater had the No.31 and No.32 receivers, the No.26 TE, no Adrian Peterson, and at least three years fewer experience as an NFL starter during the same span of time.

Bridgewater’s 7.8 yards per attempt was also the sixth-highest total of the top-20 fantasy passers during these final seven weeks. The Vikings was attacking defenses; not playing it safe.

Bridgewater’s ADP ranges from 82 to 155 five different ADP indices with an average of 127; the 10th round for QB15 that performed as QB11 with the following factors to remember: (Read the rest at Footballguys.com)

Categories: Footballguys, Matt Waldman, Players, Quarterback, Running Back, Tight End, Wide ReceiverTags: , , , , , ,

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