Do you trust your scouting intel on a player that you value higher than most or do you stick to your board?

What is 2014’s Writer’s Project?

This year’s RSPWP is a different take on team building. I will have 15-20 written scenarios based on true NFL stories provided to me from current and former NFL employees (scouts, players, and consultants). In each scenario, the participating writer is the general manager of an NFL team has a decision to make. Each scenario will have at least two different writers. I will post the writers’ responses and the actual outcome of the case study (if applicable).

Find out more about RSPWP3 and see other GM Scenarios.

GM Scenario No.4: Double Down or Stand Pat?

You’re the general manager of a squad that went 10-6 last year and lost a nail biter on the road in the divisional playoffs.  It’s your fifth year running this team and they have progressed from a 4-12 after thought to Super Bowl dark horse. The squad’s calling card is a stifling defense and power running game.

This brand of football is the team’s present—and it’s a championship window that’s open—but the makeup and style of play will look a lot different in 3-4 seasons.

The changes need to begin over the course of the next 2-3 seasons, because odds are likely that your star running back only has 2-3 years left in his legs. Just as important is the defense; 8 of 11 starters will need new deals over the next two years and 6 of these players have performed well enough that you won’t be able to afford them all.

Speaking of overachievers, the starting quarterback—a fourth round draft pick—is a rising star.  He’ll be seeking a new deal before his contract expires in two years and he is clearly the face of the franchise.

Right now, your quarterback is producing like a high-functioning game manager. He’s good in the red zone and he doesn’t turn the ball over. He also flashes big-play ability, but your attempts to pair him with a big-play threat have been largely unsuccessful.

The 1500-yard, 12-touchdown free agent receiver you acquired three years ago has missed 24 games since his arrival and last year’s big offseason signing missed 12 games. Your organization has reached a consensus that it must upgrade the receiving corps for the future, because the quarterback has the ability to become the focal point of the offense and it’s unlikely the team will ever have a running back the caliber of its current starter.

One of the players that earned the attention of your scouts is a receiver on a cellar-dwelling ACC team. Fast, tough, sure-handed, and capable of running every route, this player was his team’s offense. Moreover, he’s a team-oriented player that you’re staff gave multiple chances to throw his teammates under the bus for its failures and he never took the bait.

The NFL Draft is finally here and the team is picking 27^th overall. You’re sold this player instantly makes your team better, but your research indicates that your organization is the only one sold on him as a first-round value in a class flush with talented receivers.  However, your staff believes he’s better (and a better fit) than all but two of the receivers on your board and those two will be gone within the first 12 picks.

Aside from an under the radar football blogger you monitor, there has been zero mention of this player in the national media from January through April. However, you did see this morning a television segment where a former NFL receiver gave a glowing review of this prospect.

You have 3-4 teams who have inquired about trading into your slot and you believe they value your targeted player low enough that you could trade back 15-20 spots and still get him. But if you’re wrong, you lost a shot at your No.3 receiver on your board—and there’s a small cliff between him and your next option at the position.

Do you trade down and trust your intel that other teams don’t value him as high as your organization or do you take the guy at a premium to avoid missing a weapon that you, your coaching staff, and scouts believe will help usher your offense into a new era?

What decision do you make and what factors lead you to believe that your intel is either reliable or too shaky to trust? What’s your philosophy on playing the “value game” vs. picking the best player available and staying true to your board despite knowing that it might differ from a lot of teams?

Ethan Hammerman’s Decision

When I first received this assignment, my first two questions to Matt where whether this receiver was a underclassman, and if he was tall. I was told he could be whatever I wanted him to be. For argument’s sake, he is both of these things, because tall, young receivers are awesome.

Hopefully, this scenario is not referring to Stephen Hill, or this would make me look stupid. Stephen Hill is awful. I also originally thought this player was A.J. Jenkins. It was not. I kind of wish it was, though, because the Niners did LOVE A.J. Jenkins back in the day. 

The NFL Draft is a constantly evolving test of wits and out-guessing the competition – and some of the biggest traps that a team can fall into is overvaluing their returning players, the promise of future picks, and their coaching staffs while underrating what a true infusion of talent can do for a team.

On the other hand, value for picks is also crucial. After all, why not acquire more assets if you think a coveted player will be around later in the draft? It is also crucial for scouting staffs to have trust in their coaches and hope that, with their tutelage, they can push the players to reach their potential.

In this scenario, given the hypothetical depth at the position, the development time necessary for wide receivers to mature, and the structure of the team as it currently stands, the trade down seems like the best possible option in this particular scenario.

The differing roles and relationships between coaches and scouts is something that often gets underrated when it comes to the development of players. It is what makes teams like the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers so successful. The general managers and personnel evaluators receive direction on the kinds of groceries to buy and then put them in the hands of their chefs, the coaches, to prepare and season effectively.

The perfect example of standing pat on a wide receiver in the first round when trading down could have been a better route is when a wide receiver that you probably have not thought about in at least 10 years.  Travis Taylor, a former Florida Gator and top ten pick by the Baltimore Ravens, was the third receiver off the board in the draft. He was seen as a big, physical option for a Ravens team that was lacking one at that position.

Taylor may well have had the talent to succeed, but the lack of surrounding talent hurt his development. Here is the list of wide receiver coaches to get their hands on Taylor during his eight-year career:

• 2000 – Milt Jackson (Retired the next year)
• 2001 – Mike Nolan (Yes. That Mike Nolan. Seriously.)
• 2002 – David Shaw (Not surprisingly, Taylor did best when Shaw was there – it was the prime of his career.)
• 2003 – David Shaw (Taylor actually led all WRs on the team in catches this year, but when his quarterbacks were Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, and Chris Redman, it’s not going to be pretty.)
• 2004 – David Shaw (Injury woes + perceived lack of production = bye-bye)
• 2005 – Wes Chandler (He was fired after this season)
• 2006 – Darrell Wyatt (LOL)
• 2007 – Henry Ellard (Probably the second-best WR coach on this list, but by this time Taylor’s career trajectory was pretty much set – he had one touch for 4 yards as a Ram)
• 2007 Part 2: Lane Kiffin Raiders Edition – Charles Coe (He is currently the offensive coordinator at Missouri Baptist University – GO SPARTANS!)