Twitter: @nflosophy
Pick Summary
- Round 1: QB Drew Brees
- Round 2: TE Vernon Davis
- Round 3: DT Vince Wilfork
- Round 4: CB Brandon Carr
- Round 5: FS Dashon Goldson
- Round 6: DT/DE Quinton Coples
- Round 7: CB Aquib Talib
- Round 8: OT Donald Penn
- Round 9: WR Eric Decker
- Round 10: WR James Jones
- Round 11: ILB Jerrell Freeman
- Round 12: SS Donte Whitner
- Round 13: OLB Jason Worilds
- Round 14: OLB Victor Butler
- Round 15: RB Bryce Brown
- Round 16: DT Red Bryant
- Round 17:
- Round 18:
- Round 19:
- Round 20:
- Round 21:
- Round 22:
Pick Details
Round 1, Pick 5: Drew Brees, Quarterback
I knew that in the 5-spot I was going to have a tough decision to make. I had assumed my top 3 would be gone: Rodgers, Luck, and Brady (I would have them ranked in that order) would all be gone. I knew I would have to pick between some combination of Brees, Kaepernick, and Robert Griffin III. So the decision comes down to proven vs. future potential. Ultimately I decided on Brees because he is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL. He just turned 34 and he still has five good seasons left in him. I’ll take my chances that I can find his replacement over the risk/reward of guys who have had good early success but still pose too many question marks.
The object of this draft is to build the best group of starters you can. To me, that means making sure to get value with every pick. I want to make sure to get elite talent early and then still grab players at the deeper positions later.
I really didn’t want to go TE here but by the time I pick again all of the elite ones will be gone. Vernon Davis is a guy who can stretch the field and create all kinds of matchup issues for the defense. With a guy like Drew Brees throwing to him, it could be an unstoppable combination. There was one other young TE that I considered selecting here but I believe that Davis is actually on that upper echelon of talent with Gronkowski and Graham. The next step down would be Aaron Hernandez, who I like especially because of his age, but I don’t think is quite the talent.
I wanted to go with someone in the trenches on either side of the ball here but after looking at my options, I decided that I think I can get value there later on. The transcendent talents have already gone and I think the next tier is fairly plentiful for both offensive line and defensive line.
I have a couple of guys that I would love to try to wait on as I think they’ll be available later, but it could be risky. My next pick is only 10 picks away now and I know I can get good value there. But am I willing to risk letting one of my favorite talents get taken in the 32 picks after? Tough decision.
Round 3, Pick 92: Vince Wilfork, Defensive Tackle
I have my board of players ranked directly related to skill. I have their ages next to them. I looked at my board thoroughly and had a hard time determining what I wanted to do. I have certain positions I’m valuing more than others right now but it really comes down to value and depth for me.
Vince Wilfork was the best player on my board. While he seems like he’s been around forever, he’s only 30 years old. He still has a few years left in the tank for sure. I’ve never seen such a large body be so strong and so athletic at the same time. Wilfork moves like a linebacker and powers through defensive lines like the best defensive tackle in the game….because he still is. I know Geno Atkins is younger but he still isn’t to Wilfork’s level yet.
I have another pick coming up soon and I believed that defensive tackle was a position of necessity. I know that I can wait on a few other players that I’ve targeted. The next choice will be even tougher with talent dwindling. Even after only three rounds I’m learning that the people I’m picking against know their stuff. This is turning into quite a battle.
Round 4, Pick 101: Brandon Carr, Cornerback
You can’t survive in the NFL without a top flight CB. Brandon Carr is a large cornerback who is coming into the prime of his career. He’s progressed nicely as a player and plays well in both man and zone coverage so he leaves me open to flexibility in scheme. He can take a team’s best wide receiver and win consistently due to his length and athleticism. Carr has solid ball skills and isn’t afraid to mix it up in the run game — 2 traits I value highly. By all accounts, Carr is a positive locker room influence which is always a plus.
I again considered a couple of other positions. I don’t have an offensive lineman or wide receiver yet but that’s also why I drafted Drew Brees. He covers up a lot of flaws. Eventually I’m going to have to make sure he stays clean in the pocket and give him someone other than Vernon Davis to throw to. But when I begin drafting offense, I feel like it’s at the expense of the defense. To me, defenses play more consistently on a week-to-week basis than offenses. I still have needs on the front 7 and would like to add a top flight free safety. How the next 31 picks fall will determine my next picks rather than need.
Round 5, Pick 156: Dashon Goldson, Safety
Round 6, Pick 165: Quinton Coples, Defensive End
Round 7, Pick 220: Aquib Talib, Cornerback
Round 8, Pick 229: Donald Penn, Offensive Tackle
Round 9, Pick 284: Eric Decker, Wide Receiver
Round 10, Pick 293: James Jones, Wide Receiver
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One response to “NFLosophy”
First off let me say you do a great job on twitter and your new blog, keep it up you provide insight that nobody else can.
You made the right decision picking the sure thing at QB. Brees is 34 but your getting at least 3 high end level years left of him and that alone can assure you 10 wins if your roster isn’t ridiculously flawed the rest of the way. Two years ago if we did this exercise check out some of the young QBs who would have gone in the top 15-20 probably: Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Matt Cassel(!!), Joe Flacco. Only one of those guys would go in the top 15 today and if you had done this exercise before the postseason he wouldn’t have even been close(I wouldn’t have taken any of these QBs before rd 3 if it this was done 2 months ago). So bottom line, smart choice
Vernon Davis we’ll agree to disagree, I don’t think he’s on the level of Graham or Gronkowski(there’s a reason the 49ers made him an after thought in their game plan down the stretch that’s not a coincidence or just an issue of having a new QB), but if you do I don’t have that big a problem taking him in round 2. There’s probably a 2/3 chance he’s there 30 picks later but you probably know that and was willing to do it anyway.
Vince Wilfork is an interesting pick, he provides alot of flexilibity to your defense up front but he is 31. Best case scenario he ages like a Pat Williams or Casey Hampton but he doesn’t play like them and both of them were just JAGs the last few years of their career. I would have liked Nick Fairley alot better but to each their own. Brandon Carr in theory I like, a press corner is really important, problem is I just don’t think he’s good enough to invest that much in. Really talented player but more above average starter than top tier corner. Bruce Irvin, Luke Kuechly, Casey Heyward, Michael Brockers and Jared Allen would have all been higher on my board( in fact I would have gone Allen here if your QB is Brees your going all in the next few years anyway) but I at least get the strategy here. Nice job keep up the good stuff.